The Low-Hanging Fruit Theory of Innovation Is Only Half Right
A familiar theory of innovation says that progress gets harder because the low-hanging fruit is picked first. The first discoveries are close at hand. Later ones require larger machines, larger teams, deeper specialization, and more money. The economists Nicholas Bloom, Charles I. Jones, John Van Reenen, and Michael Webb made a version of this argument in “Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?” , showing evidence that research effort has risen substantially while research productivity has declined in several fields. Particle physics needs vast accelerators. Drug discovery becomes slower and more expensive. Space exploration moves from the comparatively accessible parts of the problem into harsher and less forgiving environments. There is truth in this. Some fields really do become more difficult as they mature. Once the obvious paths have been explored, the remaining work often demands more precision, more infrastructure, and more accumulated knowledge. The easy discoveries are not endle...