If LLMs Are a Dead End, Could They Still Accelerate AGI?
François Chollet has made one of the sharper criticisms of the current artificial-intelligence boom. In a 2024 interview with Dwarkesh Patel , the creator of Keras and ARC-AGI, and co-founder of the ARC Prize, argued that OpenAI had effectively set progress toward artificial general intelligence back by five to ten years. Chollet gave two reasons. First, he argued that frontier AI research had become much less open, with leading laboratories publishing fewer of the technical details that previously allowed ideas to spread across the research community. Second, he believed that the success of large language models had caused them to “suck the oxygen out of the room”: money, compute and researchers were flowing toward an approach he regarded as an off-ramp rather than a route to AGI. The first criticism is mainly institutional. The second creates a stranger counterfactual. Suppose Chollet is right that scaling transformers never produces artificial general intelligence. It still does...